Drought Prone Areas of India: Regions at Risk

Picture a vast stretch of land where crops wither under the relentless sun, rivers run dry, and communities struggle to find drinking water. This isn’t a scene from some distant future-it’s a reality that millions of Indians face during drought years. Understanding which regions are most vulnerable to drought isn’t just an academic exercise; it’s crucial for saving lives, protecting livelihoods, and building resilience against one of nature’s most devastating disasters.

India’s relationship with drought is complex and deeply rooted in its diverse geography and climate patterns. While the country receives abundant monsoon rainfall in many regions, certain areas face recurring water scarcity that threatens agricultural productivity and human well-being. Let’s explore how India has identified its drought-prone areas over the decades and why this knowledge matters more than ever today.

The evolution of drought mapping in India 🔗

India’s systematic effort to identify drought-prone regions began in earnest during the early 1960s. The Planning Commission conducted one of the first comprehensive assessments, taking a relatively simple approach: any area receiving less than 750 mm of annual rainfall was classified as drought-prone. While this rainfall-based threshold provided a starting point, it overlooked crucial factors like soil quality, groundwater availability, and irrigation infrastructure.

Think of it like diagnosing an illness based on just one symptom. You might catch some cases, but you’ll miss others and misdiagnose many more. The Planning Commission’s work was valuable for laying the foundation, but it was clear that drought vulnerability was more nuanced than rainfall numbers alone could reveal.

The Irrigation Commission’s broader perspective 🔗

Following the devastating droughts of 1965-66, which caused widespread suffering and food shortages, the Irrigation Commission took a more comprehensive approach. They expanded the criteria to include rainfall variability, soil moisture capacity, and existing irrigation facilities. This marked a significant shift from simply measuring how much rain fell to understanding how that rainfall interacted with the landscape and human infrastructure.

The Irrigation Commission identified approximately 67.7 million hectares across 74 districts as drought-prone, representing about 20% of India’s geographical area. It was like zooming in from a satellite view to ground level-suddenly, the picture became much clearer and more actionable.

The K.S. Bagchi Committee’s multi-factor framework 🔗

In 1973, the K.S. Bagchi Committee further refined the methodology for identifying drought-prone areas, introducing what we might call a holistic health check for regions. The committee didn’t just look at rainfall patterns; they examined rainfall intensity and distribution throughout the year, soil moisture retention capacity, groundwater availability, historical crop yield stability, and even socioeconomic factors like population density and economic dependency on agriculture.

This multi-factor approach resulted in the identification of 99.5 million hectares across 182 districts in 13 states as drought-prone-a significant expansion from previous assessments. The committee recognized that drought isn’t just about missing rain; it’s about the entire ecosystem’s ability to cope with water scarcity and the community’s vulnerability to its impacts.

India’s most vulnerable states and regions 🔗

Based on comprehensive assessments by various committees and updated by more recent studies, 13 states have been identified as having significant drought-prone areas. These states collectively account for nearly 68% of India’s geographical area and are home to over 600 million people.

Rajasthan: The desert state’s persistent challenge 🔗

Rajasthan stands out as the most severely drought-affected state in India, with over 60% of its geographical area falling within the drought-prone category. The western districts bordering the Thar Desert, including Jaisalmer, Barmer, and Bikaner, receive less than 250 mm of rainfall annually. Even the tribal districts in southern Rajasthan like Udaipur and Dungarpur, which you might not immediately associate with drought, experience periodic water scarcity.

The state’s drought vulnerability stems from its arid climate, predominance of sandy soils with poor water retention capacity, and limited surface water resources. Imagine trying to fill a bucket with holes in it-that’s essentially what happens when rain falls on Rajasthan’s sandy soils.

Maharashtra: The Marathwada crisis 🔗

The Marathwada region in Maharashtra has become synonymous with severe drought in recent years. With hot and dry weather for most parts of the year and average annual rainfall of around 750-1000 mm, water availability is a major challenge. The region has witnessed agricultural distress, farmer suicides, and mass migration during severe drought years, highlighting how drought affects not just land but entire communities.

Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana: The Deccan Plateau’s vulnerability 🔗

The Karnataka plateau and the Rayalaseema region of Andhra Pradesh face recurring drought conditions. These areas, characterized by rocky terrain and limited groundwater recharge, struggle particularly during deficit monsoon years. Recent research has documented how two-thirds of India’s area is prone to drought, with these southern states featuring prominently in vulnerability assessments.

Telangana, formed as a separate state in 2014, inherited significant drought-prone areas from Andhra Pradesh. Districts like Mahbubnagar and Medak have historically faced severe water scarcity, affecting both agriculture and daily life.

Gujarat, Odisha, and other vulnerable states 🔗

Gujarat, particularly its Kutch region and parts of Saurashtra, faces chronic drought conditions. The state receives highly erratic rainfall, making agriculture a risky proposition without adequate irrigation. Odisha, despite being on the eastern coast, has several inland districts that experience regular drought-like conditions, especially in the Kalahandi-Balangir-Koraput region.

Other significantly affected states include Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu (particularly Tirunelveli district), parts of Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar. The Bundelkhand region spanning Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh has become particularly notorious for persistent drought and agricultural distress.

How geography and development shape drought vulnerability 🔗

Drought vulnerability in India isn’t static-it evolves based on both natural geography and human development activities. Understanding these dynamic factors helps explain why some regions have become more resilient while others remain vulnerable or have even grown more susceptible to drought.

The role of topography and climate 🔗

India’s topography plays a crucial role in determining drought-prone areas. The rain shadow effect is particularly significant-areas located on the leeward side of mountain ranges receive substantially less rainfall. This is especially evident in the Deccan Plateau regions behind the Western Ghats. When moisture-laden monsoon winds hit the Western Ghats, they release most of their rain on the windward side, leaving areas like interior Maharashtra and Karnataka parched.

Elevation and slope also matter. Higher elevations and steep slopes often lead to rapid water runoff, reducing soil moisture retention. Distance from coastlines affects rainfall patterns too, with interior regions typically receiving less precipitation than coastal areas.

Development’s double-edged sword 🔗

The expansion of irrigation infrastructure has significantly altered drought vulnerability patterns across India. Major projects like the Indira Gandhi Canal in Rajasthan and the Sardar Sarovar project in Gujarat have transformed once-barren lands into productive agricultural areas. These interventions demonstrate how human ingenuity can reduce drought vulnerability.

However, development can also increase vulnerability. Deforestation, urbanization, and unsustainable groundwater extraction have intensified drought impacts in several regions. When forests are cleared, the land loses its natural water retention capacity. Urban expansion creates impervious surfaces that prevent rainwater from recharging groundwater. And the proliferation of borewells has led to rapidly depleting water tables in many areas.

Consider the case of Tamil Nadu, where groundwater levels have fallen dramatically due to over-extraction. What started as a solution to water scarcity has become part of the problem, as communities now struggle to find water even at greater depths.

Why India needs a fresh drought vulnerability assessment 🔗

The last major comprehensive drought vulnerability assessment based on the K.S. Bagchi Committee’s framework was conducted in 1973-half a century ago. While various studies have updated specific aspects, India urgently needs a comprehensive, nationwide reassessment. Here’s why:

Administrative reorganization and new states 🔗

India’s political map has changed significantly since the 1970s. The creation of states like Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, and Telangana has altered administrative approaches to drought management. Many districts have been divided or redrawn, making historical data comparison challenging. Governance structures have evolved, affecting drought response capabilities at local levels.

These administrative changes necessitate a fresh evaluation that aligns with current governance structures and can provide actionable intelligence to today’s decision-makers.

Climate change and shifting rainfall patterns 🔗

Perhaps the most compelling reason for a new assessment is climate change. India is already experiencing increased rainfall variability, with many regions seeing greater fluctuations in annual rainfall totals. The timing, duration, and intensity of monsoon rainfall are changing. Scientific studies have documented how India has witnessed a rise in the frequency, severity, and duration of droughts over recent decades, projected to be further exacerbated by climate change.

A recent district-level climate risk assessment released in 2024 found that 91 districts fall in the ‘Very High’ drought risk category and another 188 districts in the ‘High’ drought risk category. More than 85% of districts in these categories are located in Bihar, Assam, Jharkhand, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh, Kerala, Uttarakhand, and Haryana.

Changing agricultural practices and water use patterns 🔗

Agricultural practices have transformed dramatically since the 1970s. The Green Revolution introduced high-yielding but water-intensive crop varieties. Cropping patterns have shifted, with farmers in some drought-prone regions growing water-intensive crops like sugarcane and paddy. These changes have altered the relationship between rainfall, irrigation needs, and drought vulnerability.

Industrial growth and urbanization have also changed water demand patterns. Cities compete with agriculture for limited water resources, creating new dimensions to drought vulnerability that weren’t as pronounced in earlier decades.

Improved data and assessment technologies 🔗

Today’s technology allows for far more sophisticated drought monitoring than was possible in the 1970s. Satellite imagery, remote sensing, sophisticated climate models, and big data analytics can provide real-time drought monitoring and more accurate vulnerability assessments. A new assessment could leverage these technologies to create dynamic, regularly updated drought risk maps rather than static classifications.

The need for updated assessment is increasingly urgent as India continues to face the dual challenges of development and climate change. Understanding where drought risks are highest allows for more strategic investment in resilience-building measures, from water conservation infrastructure to climate-smart agricultural practices.

What do you think? Has your region experienced changes in drought patterns over recent years? How can communities better prepare for the increasing risk of water scarcity in a changing climate?

References

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought_in_India
2. https://dst.gov.in/district-level-climate-risk-assessment-india-mapping-flood-and-drought-risks-released
3. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-023-02856-y